I Have A Big Short Oil Position. Oil Will Crash.

I added to my oil shorts because I expect oil to drop several dollars in the next few days. I am already well in the money in thsi trade but I think oil can reach 70 dollars in a few trading sessions. If the middle east has a liquidity problem where will it find its needs? Selling oil.

I am also long USD against the Euro and the Yen, short Gold and short the S&P`s. These couple of days will be days to remember as my Red Ship is loaded. Fully loaded as a matter of fact.

The liquidity run has reversed. Dollar is king again even if its only for a coouple of days.

If you want to chill out a bit while you wait for tomorrow`s profits to begin to come in, go to Jose Gonzalez`s myspace. My favourite artist. Listen to the track "Down The Line", which means "there`s trouble down the line". And its not mine.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Is Dubai Defaulting Its Sovereign Debt?

This is the headline that is making all things work in my favor.

"Dubai is shaking investor confidence across the Persian Gulf after its proposal to delay debt payments risked triggering the biggest sovereign default since Argentina in 2001."

Dollar is rallying, S&P Futures selling off, Crude Oil Futures down. With one of the middle east big players facing liquidity problems I think its a no brainer that oil will be sold heavily.

Do you remember me saying that oil was weaker than everything else because it could not rally when the dollar sold off and was trading near the bottom of the trading range while other assets were close to the year`s highs? Well, we could not tell why at the time, but now we know the reason: Dubai`s liquidity issues.

If I am right, oil futures will plunge to 70 dollars a barrel in no time and major players will rush to the US Dollar for a safe heaven again. Isn`t this beautiful?

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

The US Dollar Is Making A Major Bottom

The US Dollar is making a major bottom, at least in the short to medium term. I bought USD/JPY at the end of the trading session and opened a reasonable position short EUR/USD. I plan to add further to this trade when I am confident that I am right and the market begins to move in my favor.

The refiners I had bought yesterday did fine, with Tesoro (TSO) and Valero Energy (VLO) rallying nicely and Western Refiners (WNR) losing little ground from yesterday`s big rally.

I am pretty active on several market fronts. I did well in the Nikkei Futures overnight because I was able to buy them yesterday in the US sesion with a 50 plus discount and the Nikkei 225 rallied 40 points, so I was able to net 90 points in a 10:! leveraged position. Not bad.

I don`t have any position in the Nikkei Futures for today, but I am involved in the S&P Futures (short again), in the refiners and initiating a major dollar long position. Marc Faber said recently that we was long dollars. He is already down a couple of hundred ticks but I also expect a dollar rally in the next few weeks. I enjoyed reading this passage from Associated Press,

"The safe-haven dollar slid to a 15-month low against the euro, was within striking distance of 14-year lows versus the yen and dipped below parity against the Swiss franc Wednesday as markets absorbed the Federal Reserve's indication that interest rates will remain at super-low levels for a while and it was not overly concerned by the U.S. currency's decline."

I am watching the best goals from today`s CL matches. My favourite is Milos Krasic long-range missile against Wolfsburg. Unfortunetely I cannot link the video because it is not available on Youtube due to copyright infringements. Maybe we can find it there tomorrow.

Happy Thanksgiving.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Bill Gross Bearish On China

Bill Gross joins Jim Chanos in a bearish China investment call:

"The investment guru who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pimco, Bill Gross, says a speculative bubble is emerging in China.

Real economic growth there is still constrained by limited consumer demand from the United States and other trading partners

Gross told Bloomberg News that the Chinese will have “a bubble of their own” to confront shortly."

Time to short some red hot chiese stocks?

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Bought Western Refining (WNR)

Yesterday I bought Western Refining (WNR) on what can be a reversal day for that stock. I am following the refiners for a long time and they are all quite depressed. Yesterday WNR surged with big volume. I am taking a shot.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

FED Minutes Are Very Bearish.

Fed Minutes were very bearish in my opinion but they did not spark a sell off. Maybe tomorrow?...

Federal Reserve officials said record-low interest rates might fuel “excessive” speculation in financial markets and possibly dislodge expectations for low inflation, according to minutes of their meeting released today.

“Members noted the possibility that some negative side effects might result from the maintenance of very low short-term interest rates for an extended period,” minutes of the Nov. 3-4 meeting said, “including the possibility that such a policy stance could lead to excessive risk-taking in financial markets or an unanchoring of inflation expectations.” in Bloomberg


Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Great Trading Day. Big Oil Short Pays Off.

I had a great trading session. I was active, focused, confident and luck was on my side. I started the session with a major oil futures short position that really paid off and a moderate short line on Market Vectors Gold Miners (ETF) : GDX and S&P Futures. During the session I traded EUR/USD and I bought a few refiners like Western Refining, Inc. (WNR) that rallied big time. In the meantime I bought CME Nikkei Futures with a 50 points discount to the japanese cash close and I am planning to further capitalise on them overnight.

I am exhausted but it really paid off. Its a 2009 Top 10 trading session for me.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Prechter Is The Bear Of All Bears

The famous or infamous stock market strategist Robert Prechter made some very bearish comments regarding the stock market performance in 2010:

"I think we’re in for a very large decline in the S&P in 2010. I think it’s going to be at least as what we saw in 2008. That very bearish prediction is because so very many investors have turned bullish. In the first quarter only 2% of traders were bullish and now we've got over 90% bullish"

To that he added,

"Because during the 8 months of rally, there's been a real contraction in momentum. There's been a decline in the Advance/Decline ratios that have been going up as well as a decline in volume."

I am not a big fan of Bob Prechter but he has a huge following and has certainly has made his name on the street.

Have a good trading day.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Bearish On Oil. Shorting Agressively.

Oil isn`t acting right is it? It should have rallied with the strong equity market and the weak dollar and it rallied at first and than rudely reversed to close lower. It should be trading near the highs of its recent trading range, like the Euro Currency and the S&P 500 and its close to breaking out on the downside of its range. What is it telling me?

Its telling me to short and short big. Somebody is selling heavily enough to prevent oil futures from rallying on a day that the US Dollar loses 1%.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

I Am Happy I Closed Most Of My Shorts. I Can Re-Short At Higher Prices Again If I Want To.

I saw this coming. After the inability to really follow through on the downside the market snaps back sharply in pre-market. I would have been even wiser if I had reversed my shorts and went long but I have the Nikkei 225 Futures and they are trading up 90 points, in line with the move on the S&P Futures.

Nice way to start the week. This Thanksgiving week has a bullish bias to it so be careful with the short lines. I would look for some small deals in individual stocks and I will try to play the intraday noise on the S&P Futures.

Take care.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.