I am still short the S&P Futures I have sold last Wednesday at 922. It was a no brainer going short into the Employment Report after the ADP and the Challenger jobs data. It really paid off.
I will see how it deals with the 880 mark. If it does not break I might close shorts.
As I wrote yesterday, I am re-reading "Way Of A Turtle." This is one of my favourite quotes from that book, "Good trading is not about being right, it is about trading right. If you want to be sucessful, you need to think of the long run and ignore the outcome of individual trades".
Oil keeps selling off, day after day. I have no position in oil. Its a pitty, because I saw it coming all the way. But I am getting all that I can with my big short S&P Futures. My trading account will make a new 2009 high today.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
July 6, 2009
July 5, 2009
Great Trading Book: "Way Of The Turtle"
This weekend I re-read the "Way Of The Turtle" while I was lying around the swimming pool. The "Way Of The Turtle" is a fantastic trading book from Curtis Faith, one of the original turtles. I read it last year but it really enjoyed this re-read. Perhaps because I am doing a lot of systematic, system generated trades these days.
Trading coach Van K. Tharp considered it one of the best five trading books ever written and I agree with him. This is a look at the legendary Richard Dennis`s Turtle Traders and his famous trading experience. Curtis Faith was the most sucessful member of this elite group and he describes the trading experience like a seasoned writer. Great trading book.
On other topic, I kept my short S&P Futures position from Thursday and I am almost 30 points in the money. My trading account made a new high for the year last Thursday and I will close this discretionary trading position in the next few sessions because I will focus again on my systematic trades. Opportunities like that, going short into the Employment Report, do not come often and as Stanley Druckenmiller once said, "trading is about capital preservation and home runs". This was a very leveraged trading position and a decent home run in my trading account. Its time to protect my equity, placing only some very risk limited systematic trades for the next few trading sessions.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Trading coach Van K. Tharp considered it one of the best five trading books ever written and I agree with him. This is a look at the legendary Richard Dennis`s Turtle Traders and his famous trading experience. Curtis Faith was the most sucessful member of this elite group and he describes the trading experience like a seasoned writer. Great trading book.
On other topic, I kept my short S&P Futures position from Thursday and I am almost 30 points in the money. My trading account made a new high for the year last Thursday and I will close this discretionary trading position in the next few sessions because I will focus again on my systematic trades. Opportunities like that, going short into the Employment Report, do not come often and as Stanley Druckenmiller once said, "trading is about capital preservation and home runs". This was a very leveraged trading position and a decent home run in my trading account. Its time to protect my equity, placing only some very risk limited systematic trades for the next few trading sessions.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
July 2, 2009
Shorted S&P`s At 922. Going Short Into The Employment Report
Yesterday`s ADP Employment Data was pretty bearish and after a brif uptick, markets sold off. I had a sell stop at 922 and I went short on the S&P Futures. I am going short into the Employment Report with a protective buy stop at 925. I am risking only 3 S&P points in this short term trade.
I had a very good trading session in the Oil Futures yesterday. I sold short 4 times during the trading session for a cumulative 2 full points on the traded contracts. I am at peace with my oil trading for now but I will trade again today if the opportunity presents itself.
I wrote a on a small Post-It on my trading desk, "I am just playing odds, very good odds as a matter of fact". This is to encourage my systematic trades that are on balance more profitable and more relaxed then my usual big discretionary trades. But I am an economist, I can`t help but making some macro calls on the economy, oil and the stock market.
The truth is that I like to mix them. When I am reading the markets well, discretionary trading is unbeatable. I make much more money that way then trading any system. But when I am tired or I cannot follow the markets through the trading day or when I am not reading the markets so well, I system trade. We always need to do what is fitting us best.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
I had a very good trading session in the Oil Futures yesterday. I sold short 4 times during the trading session for a cumulative 2 full points on the traded contracts. I am at peace with my oil trading for now but I will trade again today if the opportunity presents itself.
I wrote a on a small Post-It on my trading desk, "I am just playing odds, very good odds as a matter of fact". This is to encourage my systematic trades that are on balance more profitable and more relaxed then my usual big discretionary trades. But I am an economist, I can`t help but making some macro calls on the economy, oil and the stock market.
The truth is that I like to mix them. When I am reading the markets well, discretionary trading is unbeatable. I make much more money that way then trading any system. But when I am tired or I cannot follow the markets through the trading day or when I am not reading the markets so well, I system trade. We always need to do what is fitting us best.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
July 1, 2009
Hugh Hendry On Inflation Concerns
"I think this paranoia today that inflation is happening today I think it puts in place a motion for a decline in the economy," Hendry said. "I think they're not printing enough money… with regards to the wealth destruction that has been happening over the past 18 months."
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Crude Oil Inventories Fell 3.7 Mln Barrels
Crude inventories dropped again last week, though gasoline stockpiles continued to rise as refineries increased output, the government said Wednesday.
Crude inventories fell by 3.7 million barrels, or 1 percent, to 350.2 million barrels, which is 18.3 percent above year-ago levels, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Crude inventories fell by 3.7 million barrels, or 1 percent, to 350.2 million barrels, which is 18.3 percent above year-ago levels, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Oil Had Its Biggest Quarterly Rise In 19 Years
Nymex Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures jumped 41 percent in the second quarter, the biggest since 1990.
This rise was not driven by demand at all. This is the reason why some many great traders were caught on the short side of this trade.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
This rise was not driven by demand at all. This is the reason why some many great traders were caught on the short side of this trade.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Oil Inventories Will Come Out Later Today: A Drop In Inventories Is Expected
According to a Bloomberg survey the Energy Department report today will show crude-oil stockpiles dropped 2 million barrels last week. Yesterday the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute said crude supplies fell by 6.8 million barrels.
“It was an extremely huge stock draw,” said Hannes Loacker, a Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich analyst in Vienna. “If we get confirmation of that data in the Energy Department, that will help prices. Stocks have come down in the past month, so that’s at least one positive fundamental.”
“A fall in crude inventories will cause the market to move higher,” said Mike Sander, an investment adviser with Sander Capital in Seattle. Should the government report also show a decline, “it will reinforce crude to stay at or go above current levels,” he said.
New York oil jumped 41 percent in the second quarter, the biggest since 1990.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
“It was an extremely huge stock draw,” said Hannes Loacker, a Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich analyst in Vienna. “If we get confirmation of that data in the Energy Department, that will help prices. Stocks have come down in the past month, so that’s at least one positive fundamental.”
“A fall in crude inventories will cause the market to move higher,” said Mike Sander, an investment adviser with Sander Capital in Seattle. Should the government report also show a decline, “it will reinforce crude to stay at or go above current levels,” he said.
New York oil jumped 41 percent in the second quarter, the biggest since 1990.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
June 30, 2009
Art Cashin Comments On Oil Prices
Today Art Cashin commented oil prices, a rather rare event for a NYSE trader:
"With oil pressing up against key resistance here — if it gets above $74, $75, you could get a short-covering spike. That could really hurt the recovery that's beginning." says Art.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
"With oil pressing up against key resistance here — if it gets above $74, $75, you could get a short-covering spike. That could really hurt the recovery that's beginning." says Art.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Bad Economic Data. 2 Good Trades.
The economic data released today was quite disappointing. Both the Chicago PMI and the Consumer Confidence Data printed below expectations.
I have made 2 good trades today, one short Crude Oil Futures trade from 71.00 to 70.50 and one short trade on the EURO Currency Futures from 1.4100 to 1.4050. They were both mechanical trades generated by a system I have developed.
I will not trade any discretionary plays until Enzo is born, and he can arrive at anytime now.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
I have made 2 good trades today, one short Crude Oil Futures trade from 71.00 to 70.50 and one short trade on the EURO Currency Futures from 1.4100 to 1.4050. They were both mechanical trades generated by a system I have developed.
I will not trade any discretionary plays until Enzo is born, and he can arrive at anytime now.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Hugh Hendry Says Stock Markets Are Due For A Correction
Fears about inflation and hyperinflation could create another economic downturn, bigger than the one the world went through, Hugh Hendry, chief investment officer at hedge fund Eclectica, told CNBC Tuesday.
The stock markets are due for a correction after having risen dramatically this year, but this is not likely to come in the summer and another rally is possible, Hendry, who said he was remaining risk-adverse this year, told "Squawk Box Europe."
"We have a huge intellectual conviction… that this is a more profound downturn that we're experiencing and markets will be under pressure," Hendry said.
"People get more get more concerned about government debt… and it sows the seeds of its own destruction," Hendry said. "We're actually tightening the screw, we make monetary policy tighter and tighter."
Long-term yields on government bonds have been rising, as investors fear central banks, especially in the US and the UK, will have to absorb excess liquidity from the system and raise interest rates to fend off inflation once an economic recovery takes hold.
"I think this paranoia today that inflation is happening today I think it puts in place a motion for a decline in the economy," Hendry said. "I think they're not printing enough money… with regards to the wealth destruction that has been happening over the past 18 months."
"We raised interest rates and actually we killed the golden goose," he added.
A correction in the stock market is likely, but it will not come over the summer, and the S&P 500 index may even hit 1,000 before the downturn, according to Hendry, who admitted he is not stepping in to catch the tail of the rally.
"It's kind of fun watching it from the sidelines, I must say I'm not participating," he said. "My flower opens in the winter, not in the summer."
There is a tight correlation between the oil price and the Chinese currency, the yuan, with oil prices rising as the yuan was strengthening, Hendry said. This is because Chinese speculators had borrowed in dollars as the yuan firmed, and all that liquidity was thrown into the oil market last year.
"The one non-confirmation in the world is that, since July, the Chinese currency has done nothing, it was flat vis-à-vis the dollar," he added.
Hendry said he still prefers conventional government bonds, and admitted they were the cause his fund was 3 to 4 percent down on the year. But, he added, government bonds were down 20 percent – although he doesn't think they will end the year like this.
China and other countries with a current account surplus are not as safe as they seem at first glance, because their economies are still hugely dependent on exports to the US, which is still "down on its luck," he said.
"If that's the case, the last place you want to be is the surplus countries," Hendry said.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
The stock markets are due for a correction after having risen dramatically this year, but this is not likely to come in the summer and another rally is possible, Hendry, who said he was remaining risk-adverse this year, told "Squawk Box Europe."
"We have a huge intellectual conviction… that this is a more profound downturn that we're experiencing and markets will be under pressure," Hendry said.
"People get more get more concerned about government debt… and it sows the seeds of its own destruction," Hendry said. "We're actually tightening the screw, we make monetary policy tighter and tighter."
Long-term yields on government bonds have been rising, as investors fear central banks, especially in the US and the UK, will have to absorb excess liquidity from the system and raise interest rates to fend off inflation once an economic recovery takes hold.
"I think this paranoia today that inflation is happening today I think it puts in place a motion for a decline in the economy," Hendry said. "I think they're not printing enough money… with regards to the wealth destruction that has been happening over the past 18 months."
"We raised interest rates and actually we killed the golden goose," he added.
A correction in the stock market is likely, but it will not come over the summer, and the S&P 500 index may even hit 1,000 before the downturn, according to Hendry, who admitted he is not stepping in to catch the tail of the rally.
"It's kind of fun watching it from the sidelines, I must say I'm not participating," he said. "My flower opens in the winter, not in the summer."
There is a tight correlation between the oil price and the Chinese currency, the yuan, with oil prices rising as the yuan was strengthening, Hendry said. This is because Chinese speculators had borrowed in dollars as the yuan firmed, and all that liquidity was thrown into the oil market last year.
"The one non-confirmation in the world is that, since July, the Chinese currency has done nothing, it was flat vis-à-vis the dollar," he added.
Hendry said he still prefers conventional government bonds, and admitted they were the cause his fund was 3 to 4 percent down on the year. But, he added, government bonds were down 20 percent – although he doesn't think they will end the year like this.
China and other countries with a current account surplus are not as safe as they seem at first glance, because their economies are still hugely dependent on exports to the US, which is still "down on its luck," he said.
"If that's the case, the last place you want to be is the surplus countries," Hendry said.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Cashin Thinks Bear Market Rally Is Over
Art Cashin thinks the bear market rally is over and when questioned about "So what's ahead?", Cashin turned to one of his favorite rules of thumb, the mythical "Old Trader's Almanac":
"Rallies in bear markets tend to be somewhat short, but certainly very sharp — and they die on low volume."
"And the last two weeks have been very low volume," he added ominously.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
"Rallies in bear markets tend to be somewhat short, but certainly very sharp — and they die on low volume."
"And the last two weeks have been very low volume," he added ominously.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Latest Hugh Hendry Interview
Latest Hugh Hendry`s interview. Hugh is my favourite money manager but he has been completely wrong footed since March. He was on CNBC earlier today.
"Fears about inflation and hyperinflation could create another economic downturn, bigger than the one the world went through, Hugh Hendry, chief investment officer at hedge fund Eclectica, told CNBC Tuesday." in CNBC
Use Internet Explorer or Google Chrome browsers to watch this video. Mozilla has some problems with these CNBC videos.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
June 29, 2009
Marc Faber`s Short Term Projections
Marc Faber was on Bloomberg TV earlier today and gave his short term projections (4 to 6 weeks in his words):
- dollar will recover somewhat;
- bonds will rally;
- industrial commodities will be under pressure;
- gold will trade sideways to moderately down;
Very interesting comments by Marc because his short term projections are contrary to his long term outlook on the dollar, bonds and commodities in general.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
- dollar will recover somewhat;
- bonds will rally;
- industrial commodities will be under pressure;
- gold will trade sideways to moderately down;
Very interesting comments by Marc because his short term projections are contrary to his long term outlook on the dollar, bonds and commodities in general.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
IEA Cuts Oil Demand Through 2013
The IEA, has cut five-year forecasts for global crude demand because of the economic slump, predicting that consumption will not regain last year’s levels until 2012.
The IEA cut its oil demand estimates for every year through 2013 by about 3 million barrels a day, stating that consumption will average 86.76 million barrels a day in 2012, the first year it will rise above 2008’s level of 85.76 million barrels a day.
“The deep economic recession that has spread worldwide in the past year has taken a severe toll on oil demand,” the IEA said in the report, updating estimates made in December. “This marks a break after several years of strong oil demand growth.”
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
The IEA cut its oil demand estimates for every year through 2013 by about 3 million barrels a day, stating that consumption will average 86.76 million barrels a day in 2012, the first year it will rise above 2008’s level of 85.76 million barrels a day.
“The deep economic recession that has spread worldwide in the past year has taken a severe toll on oil demand,” the IEA said in the report, updating estimates made in December. “This marks a break after several years of strong oil demand growth.”
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
June 28, 2009
More On The US Savings Rate
In the recession following a borrowing binge that sent consumer debt to the highest level ever, Americans are shutting their wallets and building their nest eggs at the fastest pace in 15 years.
While the trend will put the country’s finances in better balance and reduce its dependence on Chinese investment, it may also restrain economic growth in 2010 and beyond, said Lyle Gramley, a senior economic adviser with New York-based Soleil Securities Corp. and a former Federal Reserve governor.
“There’s been a fundamental change in people’s behavior,” he said. “It will affect the economy for years.”
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
While the trend will put the country’s finances in better balance and reduce its dependence on Chinese investment, it may also restrain economic growth in 2010 and beyond, said Lyle Gramley, a senior economic adviser with New York-based Soleil Securities Corp. and a former Federal Reserve governor.
“There’s been a fundamental change in people’s behavior,” he said. “It will affect the economy for years.”
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
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